Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cumbayá vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
8/6/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 1Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá42%
×Draw29%
Tecnico Universitario29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.19
Tecnico Universitario
0.93

Cumbayá creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 129 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
0.98
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

Cumbayá
1.00
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
71%
Cumbayá or Tecnico Universitario
71%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
58%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
18%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
70%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
33%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
12%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
61%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
24%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
59%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cumbayá scores more
42%
level
29%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
29%

Cumbayá at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Cumbayá 1–2 Tecnico Universitario

Tecnico Universitario beat Cumbayá 2-1 in Liga Pro on August 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.