Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Aucas: Result & Stats

Tecnico Universitario

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aucas

J. Blanco 45'

B. Montenegro 45'

6/15/2025

Liga Pro · Round 16Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tecnico Universitario39%

×Draw28%

Aucas33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

Tecnico Universitario

1.27

Aucas

1.14

Tecnico Universitario creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.15

Aucas

1.03

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.24

Aucas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Aucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

67%

Tecnico Universitario or Aucas

72%

Draw or Aucas

61%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

17%

Aucas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

72%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

36%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

14%

Aucas 1+ goals

68%

Aucas 2+ goals

32%

Aucas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

54%

Aucas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.15 + Aucas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aucas attack 1.03 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

39%

level

28%

Aucas scores more

33%

Tecnico Universitario at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Mina

Aucas · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

E. Gruezo← M. A. Carcelen Carabali

41'

Jhon Ontaneda

45'

J. Blanco↳ J. Andrade

45'

B. Montenegro↳ J. Mina

50'

Ramiro Cristobal

64'

E. Pepinos← R. Quinonez

64'

M. Sanabria← L. Cano

75'

Angelo Mina

83'

J. Jimenez← E. Torres

83'

E. Carabali← J. Castillo

83'

C. Zambrano← B. Montenegro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TecnicoAucas

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots12

4Corners5

13Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots12

6On Target5

2Off Target4

4Blocked3

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

292Total Passes416

214Accurate Passes341

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Aucas

Tecnico Universitario and Aucas drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on June 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Blanco (45'), B. Montenegro (45').

Aucas controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.

Tecnico Universitario vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Aucas