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Aucas vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2025

Aucas
Aucas
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
M. A. Carcelen Carabali 76', 27', 13'
L. Cano 35'
E. Torres 5'
2/15/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 1Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aucas51%
×Draw26%
Tecnico Universitario23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aucas
1.48
Tecnico Universitario
0.89

Aucas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

Aucas
1.61
Tecnico Universitario
0.72

allows per match

Aucas
1.06
Tecnico Universitario
1.34

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aucas or draw
77%
Aucas or Tecnico Universitario
74%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
49%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+
26%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals
77%
Aucas 2+ goals
43%
Aucas 3+ goals
19%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
59%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
22%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)
69%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.61 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.72 + Aucas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aucas scores more
51%
level
26%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
23%

Aucas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. A. Carcelen CarabaliAucasAucas · F
10.0

Match Events

5'
E. Torres
13'
M. A. Carcelen Carabali↳ A. Mina
25'
Marcio Gomez Pereyra
27'
M. A. Carcelen Carabali↳ J. Mina
35'
L. Cano↳ M. A. Carcelen Carabali
41'
J. Caicedo← J. Ordonez
45+5'
José AndradeGoal cancelled
46'
D. Porozo← L. Cano
46'
D. Camacho← J. Jimenez
46'
J. Alman← J. Andrade
57'
Jhon Ontaneda
61'
Renny Jaramillo
70'
Davis Camacho
72'
Estalin Segura
76'
M. A. Carcelen Carabali↳ A. Almagro
86'
T. Serpa← J. Vazquez
87'
N. Sotomayor← A. Mina
87'
F. Illescas← A. Almagro
87'
C. Angulo← D. Vera
87'
J. Mohor← S. Gonzalez
90+2'
S. Porozo← M. A. Carcelen Carabali

Possession

50%Aucas

Shots

7Aucas

Pass accuracy

51%Aucas

Statistics

AucasTecnico
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots10
2Corners6
19Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots10
4On Target1
2Off Target9
1Blocked0
6Inside Box3
1Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
296Total Passes291
222Accurate Passes211
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Discipline
19Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Aucas vs Tecnico Universitario

Aucas beat Tecnico Universitario 4-1 in Liga Pro on February 15, 2025.

Goals: E. Torres (5'), M. A. Carcelen Carabali (13', 27', 76'), L. Cano (35').

Aucas controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.