Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Aucas: Result & Stats

Tecnico Universitario

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aucas

R. Rivas 10'

V. Figueroa 90+3'

10/23/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tecnico Universitario42%

×Draw26%

Aucas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Tecnico Universitario

1.46

Aucas

1.23

Tecnico Universitario creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.51

creates per match

1.26

1.21

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.51

Aucas

1.26

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.21

Aucas

1.41

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Tecnico Universitario-0.01on par

Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

68%

Tecnico Universitario or Aucas

74%

Draw or Aucas

58%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

20%

Aucas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

77%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

43%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

18%

Aucas 1+ goals

71%

Aucas 2+ goals

35%

Aucas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

57%

Aucas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.41 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.51 + Aucas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aucas attack 1.26 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

42%

level

26%

Aucas scores more

32%

Tecnico Universitario at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Rivas

36'

Juan Jimenez

45+2'

Mejia Marcos

51'

Francisco Fydriszewski

57'

C. Cuero← E. Mejía

57'

A. Carrera← A. Calderón

66'

Mario Rizotto

73'

E. Rodríguez← H. Patta

73'

73'

74'

85'

88'

L. Estupiñán← M. Mejía

88'

E. Méndez← J. Jiménez

90'

W. Marret← R. Rivas

90+3'

V. Figueroa

Possession

Shots

Statistics

TecnicoAucas

Overview

40%Possession60%

3Total Shots7

1Corners5

14Fouls20

Shots

3Total Shots7

1On Target2

2Off Target5

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls20

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Aucas

Tecnico Universitario and Aucas drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on October 23, 2021.

Goals: R. Rivas (10'), V. Figueroa (90+3').

Aucas controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.

Tecnico Universitario vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Aucas