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Techiman Liberty vs Legon Cities — Division One League 2025

Techiman Liberty
Techiman Liberty
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
1/4/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Techiman Liberty72%
×Draw17%
Legon Cities11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Techiman Liberty
2.42
Legon Cities
0.82

Techiman Liberty creates 195% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Techiman Liberty
1.71
Legon Cities
0.79

allows per match

Techiman Liberty
0.86
Legon Cities
3.14

finishing

Techiman Liberty+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Techiman Liberty ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Techiman Liberty or draw
89%
Techiman Liberty or Legon Cities
83%
Draw or Legon Cities
28%

Winning margin

Techiman Liberty wins by 2+
50%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Techiman Liberty 1+ goals
91%
Techiman Liberty 2+ goals
69%
Techiman Liberty 3+ goals
43%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
56%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
20%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Techiman Liberty (draw refunded)
87%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Techiman Liberty at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Techiman Liberty attack 1.71 + Legon Cities defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.42

Legon Cities attack 0.79 + Techiman Liberty defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Techiman Liberty scores more
72%
level
17%
Legon Cities scores more
11%

Techiman Liberty at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Techiman Liberty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Techiman Liberty vs Legon Cities

Techiman Liberty beat Legon Cities 4-0 in Division One League on January 4, 2026.