Legon Cities 1–2 Techiman Liberty: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Techiman Liberty

11/10/2025

Division One League · Round 6WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Legon Cities34%

×Draw23%

Techiman Liberty42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchTechiman Liberty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.68

Legon Cities

1.50

Techiman Liberty

1.68

Techiman Liberty creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

1.07

2.29

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.07

Techiman Liberty

1.07

allows per match

Legon Cities

2.29

Techiman Liberty

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Techiman Liberty+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Techiman Liberty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

58%

Legon Cities or Techiman Liberty

77%

Draw or Techiman Liberty

66%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

16%

Techiman Liberty wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

78%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

44%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

19%

Techiman Liberty 1+ goals

81%

Techiman Liberty 2+ goals

50%

Techiman Liberty 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

45%

Techiman Liberty (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

Techiman Liberty away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.07 + Techiman Liberty defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Techiman Liberty attack 1.07 + Legon Cities defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Legon Cities scores more

34%

level

23%

Techiman Liberty scores more

42%

Techiman Liberty at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Techiman Liberty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff