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TEC vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TEC
TEC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OSS '20
OSS '20
3/9/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 19Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEC52%
×Draw24%
OSS '2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEC
1.74
OSS '20
1.12

TEC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

TEC
1.82
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

TEC
0.76
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

TEC+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TEC or draw
76%
TEC or OSS '20
76%
Draw or OSS '20
48%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+
28%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals
82%
TEC 2+ goals
52%
TEC 3+ goals
25%
OSS '20 1+ goals
67%
OSS '20 2+ goals
31%
OSS '20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)
68%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.82 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.74

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + TEC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TEC scores more
52%
level
24%
OSS '20 scores more
24%

TEC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: TEC 2–0 OSS '20

TEC beat OSS '20 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Lok in Tiel.