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OSS '20 vs TEC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OSS '20
OSS '20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
TEC
TEC
8/27/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 2Sportpark De Rusheuvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OSS '2031%
×Draw23%
TEC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OSS '20
1.49
TEC
1.85

TEC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

OSS '20
1.80
TEC
2.12

allows per match

OSS '20
1.57
TEC
1.18

finishing

OSS '20+0.00on par
TEC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OSS '20 ↓

TEC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

OSS '20 or draw
54%
OSS '20 or TEC
77%
Draw or TEC
69%

Winning margin

OSS '20 wins by 2+
14%
TEC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

OSS '20 1+ goals
77%
OSS '20 2+ goals
44%
OSS '20 3+ goals
19%
TEC 1+ goals
84%
TEC 2+ goals
55%
TEC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

OSS '20 (draw refunded)
40%
TEC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OSS '20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 65 matches

TEC away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OSS '20 attack 1.80 + TEC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

TEC attack 2.12 + OSS '20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

OSS '20 scores more
31%
level
23%
TEC scores more
46%

TEC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OSS '20 1–1 TEC

OSS '20 and TEC drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Rusheuvel in Oss.