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TEC vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TEC
TEC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
2/3/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 21Sportpark De Lok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEC59%
×Draw22%
GVV Unitas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEC
1.94
GVV Unitas
0.99

TEC creates 96% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

creates per match

TEC
1.82
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

TEC
0.76
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

TEC+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEC ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TEC or draw
81%
TEC or GVV Unitas
78%
Draw or GVV Unitas
41%

Winning margin

TEC wins by 2+
35%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

TEC 1+ goals
86%
TEC 2+ goals
58%
TEC 3+ goals
30%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
63%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
26%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

TEC (draw refunded)
76%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEC attack 1.82 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.94

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + TEC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

TEC scores more
59%
level
22%
GVV Unitas scores more
19%

TEC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TEC 2 – 1 GVV Unitas

TEC beat GVV Unitas 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Lok in Tiel.