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GVV Unitas vs TEC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
TEC
TEC
9/9/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 4Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

GVV Unitas27%
×Draw23%
TEC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.25
TEC
1.79

TEC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
TEC
2.12

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
TEC
1.18

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
TEC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

TEC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
50%
GVV Unitas or TEC
77%
Draw or TEC
73%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
11%
TEC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
71%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
36%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
13%
TEC 1+ goals
83%
TEC 2+ goals
53%
TEC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
35%
TEC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

TEC away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + TEC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

TEC attack 2.12 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
27%
level
23%
TEC scores more
50%

TEC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TEC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GVV Unitas 1 – 2 TEC

TEC beat GVV Unitas 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.