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Team Wiener Linien vs Stripfing — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
CANC
17:00
Stripfing
Stripfing
3/13/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 14Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Team Wiener Linien27%
×Draw24%
Stripfing49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Wiener Linien
1.17
Stripfing
1.67

Stripfing creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 39 away

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Stripfing
2.13

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.21
Stripfing
0.79

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par
Stripfing+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Stripfing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw
51%
Team Wiener Linien or Stripfing
76%
Draw or Stripfing
73%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
11%
Stripfing wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
69%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
33%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
11%
Stripfing 1+ goals
81%
Stripfing 2+ goals
50%
Stripfing 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
35%
Stripfing (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Stripfing away — creates 2.13, concedes 0.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Stripfing defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stripfing attack 2.13 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more
27%
level
24%
Stripfing scores more
49%

Stripfing at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stripfing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Team Wiener Linien face Stripfing (Regionalliga - Ost)

Regionalliga - Ost returns with Team Wiener Linien hosting Stripfing. Match starts March 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Team Wiener Linien host Stripfing at Sportplatz Rax.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.