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Team Wiener Linien vs Stadlau — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stadlau
Stadlau
11/3/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 14Sportplatz Rax (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Team Wiener Linien60%
×Draw21%
Stadlau19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Wiener Linien
2.04
Stadlau
1.04

Team Wiener Linien creates 96% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Stadlau
0.87

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.21
Stadlau
2.53

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par
Stadlau+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Stadlau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw
81%
Team Wiener Linien or Stadlau
79%
Draw or Stadlau
40%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
37%
Stadlau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
87%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
60%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
33%
Stadlau 1+ goals
65%
Stadlau 2+ goals
28%
Stadlau 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
76%
Stadlau (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Stadlau away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Stadlau defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.04

Stadlau attack 0.87 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more
60%
level
21%
Stadlau scores more
19%

Team Wiener Linien at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team Wiener Linien vs Stadlau

Team Wiener Linien beat Stadlau 2-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax (Wien).