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Stadlau vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Stadlau
Stadlau
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
6/1/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 29OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stadlau36%
×Draw23%
Team Wiener Linien41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadlau
1.60
Team Wiener Linien
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Stadlau
1.60
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Stadlau
2.00
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Stadlau+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadlau ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stadlau or draw
59%
Stadlau or Team Wiener Linien
77%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
64%

Winning margin

Stadlau wins by 2+
18%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stadlau 1+ goals
80%
Stadlau 2+ goals
47%
Stadlau 3+ goals
22%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
82%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
51%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Stadlau (draw refunded)
47%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadlau at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadlau attack 1.60 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Stadlau defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stadlau scores more
36%
level
23%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
41%

Team Wiener Linien at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stadlau vs Team Wiener Linien

Team Wiener Linien beat Stadlau 2-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien).