Team Wiener Linien 3–3 St. Pölten II

Team Wiener Linien

FT

3 – 3

St. Pölten II

8/18/2018

Regionalliga - Ost · Round 3Sportplatz Rax (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Team Wiener Linien53%

×Draw23%

St. Pölten II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team Wiener LinienExpected goals in this matchSt. Pölten II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.14

Team Wiener Linien

1.83

St. Pölten II

1.14

Team Wiener Linien creates 61% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

1.54

creates per match

1.07

1.21

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien

1.54

St. Pölten II

1.07

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien

1.21

St. Pölten II

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

St. Pölten II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw

76%

Team Wiener Linien or St. Pölten II

77%

Draw or St. Pölten II

47%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+

30%

St. Pölten II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals

84%

Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals

54%

Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals

28%

St. Pölten II 1+ goals

68%

St. Pölten II 2+ goals

32%

St. Pölten II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)

69%

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

St. Pölten II away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + St. Pölten II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

St. Pölten II attack 1.07 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more

53%

level

23%

St. Pölten II scores more

24%

Team Wiener Linien at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff