St. Pölten II 3–3 Team Wiener Linien

St. Pölten II

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Team Wiener Linien

3/19/2019

Regionalliga - Ost · Round 18Sportplatz Ober-Grafendorf (Ober-Grafendorf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

St. Pölten II30%

×Draw23%

Team Wiener Linien47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Pölten IIExpected goals in this matchTeam Wiener Linien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.81

St. Pölten II

1.41

Team Wiener Linien

1.81

Team Wiener Linien creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

1.20

creates per match

1.43

2.20

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

St. Pölten II

1.20

Team Wiener Linien

1.43

allows per match

St. Pölten II

2.20

Team Wiener Linien

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pölten II ↓

Team Wiener Linien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

St. Pölten II or draw

53%

St. Pölten II or Team Wiener Linien

77%

Draw or Team Wiener Linien

70%

Winning margin

St. Pölten II wins by 2+

13%

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

St. Pölten II 1+ goals

76%

St. Pölten II 2+ goals

41%

St. Pölten II 3+ goals

17%

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals

84%

Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals

54%

Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)

39%

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pölten II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pölten II attack 1.20 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + St. Pölten II defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Pölten II scores more

30%

level

23%

Team Wiener Linien scores more

47%

Team Wiener Linien at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff