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Team Wiener Linien vs Schwechat — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Schwechat
Schwechat
8/31/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 5Sportplatz Rax (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Team Wiener Linien69%
×Draw18%
Schwechat13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Wiener Linien
2.37
Schwechat
0.94

Team Wiener Linien creates 152% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Schwechat
0.67

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.21
Schwechat
3.20

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par
Schwechat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Schwechat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw
87%
Team Wiener Linien or Schwechat
82%
Draw or Schwechat
31%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
46%
Schwechat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
91%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
68%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
42%
Schwechat 1+ goals
61%
Schwechat 2+ goals
24%
Schwechat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
84%
Schwechat (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Schwechat away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Schwechat defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.37

Schwechat attack 0.67 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more
69%
level
18%
Schwechat scores more
13%

Team Wiener Linien at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Team Wiener Linien 2–1 Schwechat

Team Wiener Linien beat Schwechat 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 31, 2018.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax (Wien).