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Schwechat vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Schwechat
Schwechat
FT
2 – 1
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
3/29/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 20Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion (Schwechat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schwechat26%
×Draw23%
Team Wiener Linien51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schwechat
1.21
Team Wiener Linien
1.78

Team Wiener Linien creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Schwechat
0.80
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Schwechat
2.13
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Schwechat+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwechat ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Schwechat or draw
49%
Schwechat or Team Wiener Linien
77%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
74%

Winning margin

Schwechat wins by 2+
10%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Schwechat 1+ goals
70%
Schwechat 2+ goals
34%
Schwechat 3+ goals
12%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
83%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
53%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Schwechat (draw refunded)
34%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwechat at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwechat attack 0.80 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.21

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Schwechat defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Schwechat scores more
26%
level
23%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
51%

Team Wiener Linien at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Schwechat 2–1 Team Wiener Linien

Schwechat beat Team Wiener Linien 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion (Schwechat).