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Team Wiener Linien vs Rapid Wien II — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
CANC
14:30
Rapid Wien II
Rapid Wien II
5/9/2020Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 27Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Team Wiener Linien32%
×Draw24%
Rapid Wien II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Wiener Linien
1.34
Rapid Wien II
1.61

Rapid Wien II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 40 away

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Rapid Wien II
2.02

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.21
Rapid Wien II
1.15

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par
Rapid Wien II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Rapid Wien II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw
56%
Team Wiener Linien or Rapid Wien II
76%
Draw or Rapid Wien II
68%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
14%
Rapid Wien II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
74%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
39%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
15%
Rapid Wien II 1+ goals
80%
Rapid Wien II 2+ goals
48%
Rapid Wien II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
42%
Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Rapid Wien II away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Rapid Wien II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rapid Wien II attack 2.02 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more
32%
level
24%
Rapid Wien II scores more
44%

Rapid Wien II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rapid Wien II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Team Wiener Linien face Rapid Wien II (Regionalliga - Ost)

Regionalliga - Ost returns with Team Wiener Linien hosting Rapid Wien II. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Team Wiener Linien host Rapid Wien II at Sportplatz Rax.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.