Rapid Wien II 3–0 Team Wiener Linien

Rapid Wien II

FT

3 – 0

Team Wiener Linien

9/18/2018

Regionalliga - Ost · Round 6Trainingsgelände Allianz Arena (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rapid Wien II55%

×Draw23%

Team Wiener Linien22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid Wien IIExpected goals in this matchTeam Wiener Linien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.07

Rapid Wien II

1.81

Team Wiener Linien

1.07

Rapid Wien II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

2.00

creates per match

1.43

0.71

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Rapid Wien II

2.00

Team Wiener Linien

1.43

allows per match

Rapid Wien II

0.71

Team Wiener Linien

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid Wien II+0.00on par

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Wien II ↓

Team Wiener Linien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rapid Wien II or draw

78%

Rapid Wien II or Team Wiener Linien

77%

Draw or Team Wiener Linien

45%

Winning margin

Rapid Wien II wins by 2+

31%

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rapid Wien II 1+ goals

84%

Rapid Wien II 2+ goals

54%

Rapid Wien II 3+ goals

27%

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals

66%

Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals

29%

Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)

71%

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Wien II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 42 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Wien II attack 2.00 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Rapid Wien II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rapid Wien II scores more

55%

level

23%

Team Wiener Linien scores more

22%

Rapid Wien II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rapid Wien II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff