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Team Wiener Linien vs Parndorf — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Parndorf
Parndorf
3/9/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 17Sportplatz Rax (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Team Wiener Linien41%
×Draw24%
Parndorf35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Wiener Linien
1.65
Parndorf
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 32 away

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Parndorf
1.84

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.21
Parndorf
1.75

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par
Parndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Parndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw
65%
Team Wiener Linien or Parndorf
76%
Draw or Parndorf
59%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
21%
Parndorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
81%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
49%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
23%
Parndorf 1+ goals
78%
Parndorf 2+ goals
45%
Parndorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
54%
Parndorf (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Parndorf away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Parndorf defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Parndorf attack 1.84 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more
41%
level
24%
Parndorf scores more
35%

Team Wiener Linien at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team Wiener Linien vs Parndorf

Team Wiener Linien beat Parndorf 4-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax (Wien).