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Parndorf vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Parndorf
Parndorf
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
8/10/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 2Heidebodenstadion (Parndorf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Parndorf43%
×Draw26%
Team Wiener Linien32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parndorf
1.47
Team Wiener Linien
1.23

Parndorf creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

Parndorf
1.32
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Parndorf
1.03
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Parndorf+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parndorf ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Parndorf or draw
68%
Parndorf or Team Wiener Linien
74%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
57%

Winning margin

Parndorf wins by 2+
21%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Parndorf 1+ goals
77%
Parndorf 2+ goals
43%
Parndorf 3+ goals
18%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
71%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
35%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Parndorf (draw refunded)
57%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parndorf at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parndorf attack 1.32 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Parndorf defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Parndorf scores more
43%
level
26%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
32%

Parndorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parndorf vs Team Wiener Linien

Parndorf and Team Wiener Linien drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 10, 2018.

The match was played at Heidebodenstadion (Parndorf).