Team Wiener Linien 0–2 Ebreichsdorf: Result & Stats

Team Wiener Linien

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ebreichsdorf

8/9/2019

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 2Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Team Wiener Linien26%

×Draw25%

Ebreichsdorf49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team Wiener LinienExpected goals in this matchEbreichsdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.56

Team Wiener Linien

1.06

Ebreichsdorf

1.56

Ebreichsdorf creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

1.54

creates per match

1.92

1.21

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien

1.54

Ebreichsdorf

1.92

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien

1.21

Ebreichsdorf

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Ebreichsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Ebreichsdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw

51%

Team Wiener Linien or Ebreichsdorf

75%

Draw or Ebreichsdorf

74%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+

10%

Ebreichsdorf wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals

65%

Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals

29%

Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals

9%

Ebreichsdorf 1+ goals

79%

Ebreichsdorf 2+ goals

46%

Ebreichsdorf 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)

35%

Ebreichsdorf (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Ebreichsdorf away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Ebreichsdorf defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ebreichsdorf attack 1.92 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more

26%

level

25%

Ebreichsdorf scores more

49%

Ebreichsdorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ebreichsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff