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Ebreichsdorf vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Ebreichsdorf
Ebreichsdorf
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
2/28/2020Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 17Sportzentrum Ebreichsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ebreichsdorf65%
×Draw19%
Team Wiener Linien16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebreichsdorf
2.31
Team Wiener Linien
1.07

Ebreichsdorf creates 116% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ebreichsdorf
3.00
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Ebreichsdorf
0.71
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Ebreichsdorf+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebreichsdorf ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ebreichsdorf or draw
84%
Ebreichsdorf or Team Wiener Linien
81%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
35%

Winning margin

Ebreichsdorf wins by 2+
42%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ebreichsdorf 1+ goals
90%
Ebreichsdorf 2+ goals
67%
Ebreichsdorf 3+ goals
40%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
66%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
29%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ebreichsdorf (draw refunded)
80%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebreichsdorf at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebreichsdorf attack 3.00 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.31

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Ebreichsdorf defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ebreichsdorf scores more
65%
level
19%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
16%

Ebreichsdorf at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ebreichsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebreichsdorf vs Team Wiener Linien

Ebreichsdorf and Team Wiener Linien drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Ebreichsdorf in Weigelsdorf.