Team TG FF W 2–2 Älvsjö AIK W: Result & Stats

Team TG FF W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Älvsjö AIK W

E. Ellman 39'

A. Sandström 12'

L. Nazeri 90+3'

M. Sjöström 59'

10/22/2022

Elitettan · Round 24Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Team TG FF W42%

×Draw22%

Älvsjö AIK W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team TG FF WExpected goals in this matchÄlvsjö AIK W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.72

Team TG FF W

1.89

Älvsjö AIK W

1.72

Team TG FF W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

1.12

2.31

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Team TG FF W

1.08

Älvsjö AIK W

1.12

allows per match

Team TG FF W

2.31

Älvsjö AIK W

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Älvsjö AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team TG FF W ↓

Älvsjö AIK W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Team TG FF W or draw

64%

Team TG FF W or Älvsjö AIK W

78%

Draw or Älvsjö AIK W

58%

Winning margin

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

23%

Älvsjö AIK W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

85%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

56%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

29%

Älvsjö AIK W 1+ goals

82%

Älvsjö AIK W 2+ goals

51%

Älvsjö AIK W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

54%

Älvsjö AIK W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team TG FF W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Älvsjö AIK W away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team TG FF W attack 1.08 + Älvsjö AIK W defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Älvsjö AIK W attack 1.12 + Team TG FF W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Team TG FF W scores more

42%

level

22%

Älvsjö AIK W scores more

36%

Team TG FF W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Team TG FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Sandström

39'

E. Ellman

59'

M. Sjöström

64'

A. Brännström← F. Wiklund

64'

L. Lundgren← E. Åström

67'

H. Ejnarsson← O. Ouzounidis

80'

E. Dahlin

80'

P. Zarassi← E. Ellman

89'

A. Svedberg← E. Dahlin

90+3'

L. Nazeri

Team

Älvsjö

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ellman

⚽

Sandström

Manager: J. Wikström

64'▲A. Brännström←▼F. Wiklund

64'▲L. Lundgren←▼E. Åström

80'▲P. Zarassi←▼E. Ellman

89'▲A. Svedberg←▼E. Dahlin

Team TG FF W substitutes

BrännströmLundgrenZarassiSvedbergAnderssonWikströmNduwimana

Manager: J. Roth

67'▲H. Ejnarsson←▼O. Ouzounidis

Älvsjö AIK W substitutes

EjnarssonNetzBrundin

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Älvsjö AIK W

Team TG FF W and Älvsjö AIK W drew 2-2 in Elitettan on October 22, 2022.

Goals: A. Sandström (12'), E. Ellman (39'), M. Sjöström (59'), L. Nazeri (90+3').

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.

Team TG FF W vs Älvsjö AIK W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Team TG FF W vs Älvsjö AIK W