Älvsjö AIK W 0–1 Team TG FF W: Result & Stats

Älvsjö AIK W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Team TG FF W

J. Wendelius 90+2' (OG)

4/30/2022

Elitettan · Round 5Älvsjö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Älvsjö AIK W46%

×Draw24%

Team TG FF W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Älvsjö AIK WExpected goals in this matchTeam TG FF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

Älvsjö AIK W

1.67

Team TG FF W

1.29

Älvsjö AIK W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.19

creates per match

0.81

1.77

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Älvsjö AIK W

1.19

Team TG FF W

0.81

allows per match

Älvsjö AIK W

1.77

Team TG FF W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Älvsjö AIK W+0.00on par

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Älvsjö AIK W ↓

Team TG FF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Älvsjö AIK W or draw

70%

Älvsjö AIK W or Team TG FF W

76%

Draw or Team TG FF W

54%

Winning margin

Älvsjö AIK W wins by 2+

24%

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Älvsjö AIK W 1+ goals

81%

Älvsjö AIK W 2+ goals

50%

Älvsjö AIK W 3+ goals

23%

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

72%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

37%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Älvsjö AIK W (draw refunded)

61%

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Älvsjö AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Team TG FF W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Älvsjö AIK W attack 1.19 + Team TG FF W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.67

Team TG FF W attack 0.81 + Älvsjö AIK W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Älvsjö AIK W scores more

46%

level

24%

Team TG FF W scores more

30%

Älvsjö AIK W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Älvsjö AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

H. Clarstedt← J. Hällström

65'

N. Schultze← O. Sjöblom

68'

P. Zarassi← J. Wikström

79'

A. Svedberg← J. Björnler

79'

E. Åström← A. Brännström

87'

S. Brundin← M. Wangerheim

89'

L. Lindstrom

90+4'

A. Westman← A. Sandström

90+2'

J. WendeliusOwn goal

Älvsjö

Team

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Riedel

65'▲H. Clarstedt←▼J. Hällström

65'▲N. Schultze←▼O. Sjöblom

87'▲S. Brundin←▼M. Wangerheim

Älvsjö AIK W substitutes

ClarstedtSchultzeBrundinNetzLöbelOuzounidis

Manager: J. Wikström

68'▲P. Zarassi←▼J. Wikström

79'▲A. Svedberg←▼J. Björnler

79'▲E. Åström←▼A. Brännström

90+4'▲A. Westman←▼A. Sandström

Team TG FF W substitutes

ZarassiSvedbergÅströmWestmanForsVikström