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Team Nuova Florida vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
FT
1 – 3
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
10/5/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 6Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Team Nuova Florida41%
×Draw26%
Ostia Mare33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Nuova Florida
1.44
Ostia Mare
1.27

Team Nuova Florida creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

creates per match

Team Nuova Florida
1.74
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Team Nuova Florida
0.94
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Nuova Florida ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Team Nuova Florida or draw
67%
Team Nuova Florida or Ostia Mare
74%
Draw or Ostia Mare
59%

Winning margin

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
20%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
76%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
42%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
18%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
72%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
36%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
55%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Nuova Florida at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.74 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Team Nuova Florida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Team Nuova Florida scores more
41%
level
26%
Ostia Mare scores more
33%

Team Nuova Florida at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team Nuova Florida vs Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Team Nuova Florida 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea).