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Ostia Mare vs Team Nuova Florida — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
F. Marcheggiani 14'
C. Cesaretti 82' (pen)
R. Capparella 69', 54'
L. Persichini 21'
5/1/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Anco Marzio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ostia Mare44%
×Draw27%
Team Nuova Florida29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostia Mare
1.40
Team Nuova Florida
1.08

Ostia Mare creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ostia Mare
1.39
Team Nuova Florida
1.24

allows per match

Ostia Mare
0.93
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par
Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Team Nuova Florida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw
71%
Ostia Mare or Team Nuova Florida
73%
Draw or Team Nuova Florida
56%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+
21%
Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals
75%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
41%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
17%
Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
66%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
29%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
60%
Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ostia Mare scores more
44%
level
27%
Team Nuova Florida scores more
29%

Ostia Mare at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
F. Marcheggiani
21'
L. Persichini
54'
R. Capparella
69'
R. Capparella
82'
C. CesarettiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostia Mare vs Team Nuova Florida

Team Nuova Florida beat Ostia Mare 4-1 in Serie D - Girone G on May 1, 2022.

Goals: F. Marcheggiani (14'), L. Persichini (21'), R. Capparella (54', 69'), C. Cesaretti (82' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Anco Marzio in Lido di Ostia.