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Team Nuova Florida vs Lanusei — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
FT
1 – 0
Lanusei
Lanusei
2/2/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 22Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Team Nuova Florida58%
×Draw24%
Lanusei18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Nuova Florida
1.65
Lanusei
0.79

Team Nuova Florida creates 109% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Team Nuova Florida
1.74
Lanusei
0.65

allows per match

Team Nuova Florida
0.94
Lanusei
1.55

finishing

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par
Lanusei+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Nuova Florida ↓

Lanusei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Team Nuova Florida or draw
82%
Team Nuova Florida or Lanusei
76%
Draw or Lanusei
42%

Winning margin

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
32%
Lanusei wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
81%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
49%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
23%
Lanusei 1+ goals
55%
Lanusei 2+ goals
19%
Lanusei 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
76%
Lanusei (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Nuova Florida at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Lanusei away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.74 + Lanusei defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lanusei attack 0.65 + Team Nuova Florida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Team Nuova Florida scores more
58%
level
24%
Lanusei scores more
18%

Team Nuova Florida at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team Nuova Florida vs Lanusei

Team Nuova Florida beat Lanusei 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea).