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Lanusei vs Team Nuova Florida — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
FT
0 – 1
Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
10/10/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 4Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lanusei40%
×Draw27%
Team Nuova Florida33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.31
Team Nuova Florida
1.17

Lanusei creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Team Nuova Florida
1.24

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Team Nuova Florida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
67%
Lanusei or Team Nuova Florida
73%
Draw or Team Nuova Florida
60%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
18%
Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
73%
Lanusei 2+ goals
38%
Lanusei 3+ goals
14%
Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
69%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
33%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
55%
Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lanusei scores more
40%
level
27%
Team Nuova Florida scores more
33%

Lanusei at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lanusei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanusei vs Team Nuova Florida

Team Nuova Florida beat Lanusei 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei in Lanusei.