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Team BJMC vs Sheikh Russel — Premier League 2019

Team BJMC
Team BJMC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
4/20/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Team BJMC27%
×Draw28%
Sheikh Russel45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team BJMC
0.95
Sheikh Russel
1.30

Sheikh Russel creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 57 away

creates per match

Team BJMC
0.58
Sheikh Russel
1.35

allows per match

Team BJMC
1.25
Sheikh Russel
1.32

finishing

Team BJMC+0.00on par
Sheikh Russel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team BJMC ↓

Sheikh Russel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Team BJMC or draw
55%
Team BJMC or Sheikh Russel
72%
Draw or Sheikh Russel
73%

Winning margin

Team BJMC wins by 2+
10%
Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Team BJMC 1+ goals
61%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
25%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
7%
Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
73%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
37%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Team BJMC (draw refunded)
38%
Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team BJMC at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Sheikh Russel away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.95

Sheikh Russel attack 1.35 + Team BJMC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Team BJMC scores more
27%
level
28%
Sheikh Russel scores more
45%

Sheikh Russel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team BJMC vs Sheikh Russel

Sheikh Russel beat Team BJMC 1-0 in Premier League on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).