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Sheikh Russel vs Team BJMC — Premier League 2019

Sheikh Russel
Sheikh Russel
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Team BJMC
Team BJMC
8/2/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Sylhet District Stadium (Sylhet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sheikh Russel56%
×Draw24%
Team BJMC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheikh Russel
1.70
Team BJMC
0.89

Sheikh Russel creates 91% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sheikh Russel
1.65
Team BJMC
0.58

allows per match

Sheikh Russel
1.19
Team BJMC
1.75

finishing

Sheikh Russel+0.00on par
Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Russel ↓

Team BJMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sheikh Russel or draw
80%
Sheikh Russel or Team BJMC
76%
Draw or Team BJMC
44%

Winning margin

Sheikh Russel wins by 2+
31%
Team BJMC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sheikh Russel 1+ goals
82%
Sheikh Russel 2+ goals
51%
Sheikh Russel 3+ goals
24%
Team BJMC 1+ goals
59%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
22%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Russel (draw refunded)
74%
Team BJMC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Russel at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Russel attack 1.65 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.70

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Sheikh Russel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sheikh Russel scores more
56%
level
24%
Team BJMC scores more
20%

Sheikh Russel at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sheikh Russel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheikh Russel vs Team BJMC

Sheikh Russel beat Team BJMC 3-1 in Premier League on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Sylhet District Stadium (Sylhet).