Team BJMC 0–2 Sheikh Jamal: Result & Stats

Team BJMC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sheikh Jamal

2/2/2019

Premier League · Round 4Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Team BJMC27%

×Draw28%

Sheikh Jamal45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team BJMCExpected goals in this matchSheikh Jamal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.35

Team BJMC

0.98

Sheikh Jamal

1.35

Sheikh Jamal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 56 away

0.58

creates per match

1.45

1.25

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Team BJMC

0.58

Sheikh Jamal

1.45

allows per match

Team BJMC

1.25

Sheikh Jamal

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team BJMC+0.00on par

Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team BJMC ↓

Sheikh Jamal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Team BJMC or draw

55%

Team BJMC or Sheikh Jamal

72%

Draw or Sheikh Jamal

73%

Winning margin

Team BJMC wins by 2+

10%

Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Team BJMC 1+ goals

62%

Team BJMC 2+ goals

26%

Team BJMC 3+ goals

8%

Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals

74%

Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals

39%

Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Team BJMC (draw refunded)

38%

Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team BJMC at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.45 + Team BJMC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Team BJMC scores more

27%

level

28%

Sheikh Jamal scores more

45%

Sheikh Jamal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sheikh Jamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff