Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sheikh Jamal vs Team BJMC — Premier League 2019

Sheikh Jamal
Sheikh Jamal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Team BJMC
Team BJMC
6/15/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sheikh Jamal52%
×Draw25%
Team BJMC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheikh Jamal
1.63
Team BJMC
0.99

Sheikh Jamal creates 65% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sheikh Jamal
1.51
Team BJMC
0.58

allows per match

Sheikh Jamal
1.40
Team BJMC
1.75

finishing

Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par
Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheikh Jamal ↓

Team BJMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sheikh Jamal or draw
77%
Sheikh Jamal or Team BJMC
75%
Draw or Team BJMC
48%

Winning margin

Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+
28%
Team BJMC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals
80%
Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals
48%
Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals
22%
Team BJMC 1+ goals
63%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
26%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)
69%
Team BJMC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheikh Jamal at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.51 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sheikh Jamal scores more
52%
level
25%
Team BJMC scores more
23%

Sheikh Jamal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sheikh Jamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheikh Jamal vs Team BJMC

Team BJMC beat Sheikh Jamal 2-1 in Premier League on June 15, 2019.

The match was played at Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka).