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Team BJMC vs Rahmatgonj MFS — Premier League 2019

Team BJMC
Team BJMC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
3/1/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Team BJMC35%
×Draw27%
Rahmatgonj MFS38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team BJMC
1.19
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 75 away

creates per match

Team BJMC
0.58
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.24

allows per match

Team BJMC
1.25
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.80

finishing

Team BJMC+0.00on par
Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team BJMC ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Team BJMC or draw
62%
Team BJMC or Rahmatgonj MFS
73%
Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS
65%

Winning margin

Team BJMC wins by 2+
15%
Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Team BJMC 1+ goals
70%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
33%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
12%
Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
71%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
36%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Team BJMC (draw refunded)
48%
Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team BJMC at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.24 + Team BJMC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Team BJMC scores more
35%
level
27%
Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
38%

Rahmatgonj MFS at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rahmatgonj MFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Team BJMC 0–1 Rahmatgonj MFS

Rahmatgonj MFS beat Team BJMC 1-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).