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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Team BJMC — Premier League 2019

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Team BJMC
Team BJMC
7/16/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS49%
×Draw26%
Team BJMC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.52
Team BJMC
1.00

Rahmatgonj MFS creates 52% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29
Team BJMC
0.58

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.43
Team BJMC
1.75

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Team BJMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
75%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Team BJMC
74%
Draw or Team BJMC
51%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
25%
Team BJMC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
78%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
45%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
20%
Team BJMC 1+ goals
63%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
26%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
66%
Team BJMC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
49%
level
26%
Team BJMC scores more
25%

Rahmatgonj MFS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rahmatgonj MFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rahmatgonj MFS vs Team BJMC

Rahmatgonj MFS beat Team BJMC 3-2 in Premier League on July 16, 2019.

The match was played at Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka).