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Team BJMC vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Premier League 2019

Team BJMC
Team BJMC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
5/10/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Team BJMC23%
×Draw27%
Mohammedan Dhaka50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team BJMC
0.85
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.41

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 66% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 77 away

creates per match

Team BJMC
0.58
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.57

allows per match

Team BJMC
1.25
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.13

finishing

Team BJMC+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team BJMC ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Team BJMC or draw
50%
Team BJMC or Mohammedan Dhaka
73%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
77%

Winning margin

Team BJMC wins by 2+
7%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Team BJMC 1+ goals
57%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
21%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
5%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
76%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
41%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Team BJMC (draw refunded)
31%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team BJMC at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.57 + Team BJMC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Team BJMC scores more
23%
level
27%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
50%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team BJMC vs Mohammedan Dhaka

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Team BJMC 2-1 in Premier League on May 10, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).