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Mohammedan Dhaka vs Team BJMC — Premier League 2019

Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Team BJMC
Team BJMC
1/20/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka61%
×Draw22%
Team BJMC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.86
Team BJMC
0.87

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 114% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 12 away

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.97
Team BJMC
0.58

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.16
Team BJMC
1.75

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par
Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Team BJMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw
83%
Mohammedan Dhaka or Team BJMC
78%
Draw or Team BJMC
39%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
36%
Team BJMC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
84%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
55%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
28%
Team BJMC 1+ goals
58%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
22%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
78%
Team BJMC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.97 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.86

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
61%
level
22%
Team BJMC scores more
17%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mohammedan Dhaka 2–1 Team BJMC

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Team BJMC 2-1 in Premier League on January 20, 2019.

The match was played at Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka).