Team BJMC 1–1 Abahani Chittagong: Result & Stats

Team BJMC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Abahani Chittagong

5/21/2019

Premier League · Round 16Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Team BJMC33%

×Draw27%

Abahani Chittagong40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team BJMCExpected goals in this matchAbahani Chittagong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.29

Team BJMC

1.14

Abahani Chittagong

1.29

Abahani Chittagong creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 67 away

0.58

creates per match

1.33

1.25

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Team BJMC

0.58

Abahani Chittagong

1.33

allows per match

Team BJMC

1.25

Abahani Chittagong

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team BJMC+0.00on par

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team BJMC ↓

Abahani Chittagong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Team BJMC or draw

60%

Team BJMC or Abahani Chittagong

73%

Draw or Abahani Chittagong

67%

Winning margin

Team BJMC wins by 2+

13%

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Team BJMC 1+ goals

68%

Team BJMC 2+ goals

32%

Team BJMC 3+ goals

11%

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals

72%

Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals

37%

Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Team BJMC (draw refunded)

45%

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team BJMC at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.14

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.33 + Team BJMC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Team BJMC scores more

33%

level

27%

Abahani Chittagong scores more

40%

Abahani Chittagong at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Abahani Chittagong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff