Abahani Chittagong 0–0 Team BJMC: Result & Stats

Abahani Chittagong

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Team BJMC

1/29/2019

Premier League · Round 3Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Abahani Chittagong46%

×Draw26%

Team BJMC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abahani ChittagongExpected goals in this matchTeam BJMC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Abahani Chittagong

1.48

Team BJMC

1.09

Abahani Chittagong creates 36% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 12 away

1.20

creates per match

0.58

1.60

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong

1.20

Team BJMC

0.58

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong

1.60

Team BJMC

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Team BJMC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw

72%

Abahani Chittagong or Team BJMC

74%

Draw or Team BJMC

54%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+

23%

Team BJMC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals

77%

Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals

43%

Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals

19%

Team BJMC 1+ goals

66%

Team BJMC 2+ goals

30%

Team BJMC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)

62%

Team BJMC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 65 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.20 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more

46%

level

26%

Team BJMC scores more

28%

Abahani Chittagong at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Abahani Chittagong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff