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Team BJMC vs Abahani — Premier League 2019

Team BJMC
Team BJMC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Abahani
Abahani
7/1/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Team BJMC19%
×Draw24%
Abahani57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team BJMC
0.88
Abahani
1.71

Abahani creates 94% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 73 away

creates per match

Team BJMC
0.58
Abahani
2.16

allows per match

Team BJMC
1.25
Abahani
1.18

finishing

Team BJMC+0.00on par
Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team BJMC ↓

Abahani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Team BJMC or draw
43%
Team BJMC or Abahani
76%
Draw or Abahani
81%

Winning margin

Team BJMC wins by 2+
6%
Abahani wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Team BJMC 1+ goals
59%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
22%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
6%
Abahani 1+ goals
82%
Abahani 2+ goals
51%
Abahani 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Team BJMC (draw refunded)
25%
Abahani (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team BJMC at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Abahani away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Abahani defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.88

Abahani attack 2.16 + Team BJMC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Team BJMC scores more
19%
level
24%
Abahani scores more
57%

Abahani at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Team BJMC 1–2 Abahani

Abahani beat Team BJMC 2-1 in Premier League on July 1, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).