Abahani 1–0 Team BJMC: Result & Stats

Abahani

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Team BJMC

2/7/2019

Premier League · Round 5Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Abahani68%

×Draw20%

Team BJMC12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbahaniExpected goals in this matchTeam BJMC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.74

Abahani

2.05

Team BJMC

0.74

Abahani creates 177% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 12 away

2.35

creates per match

0.58

0.90

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Abahani

2.35

Team BJMC

0.58

allows per match

Abahani

0.90

Team BJMC

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par

Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Team BJMC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Abahani or draw

88%

Abahani or Team BJMC

80%

Draw or Team BJMC

32%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+

43%

Team BJMC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals

87%

Abahani 2+ goals

61%

Abahani 3+ goals

33%

Team BJMC 1+ goals

52%

Team BJMC 2+ goals

17%

Team BJMC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)

84%

Team BJMC (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.90 · 77 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.35 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.05

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Abahani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Abahani scores more

68%

level

20%

Team BJMC scores more

12%

Abahani at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff