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TB vs HB Torshavn — Meistaradeildin 2019

TB
TB
FT
2 – 7
HT: 2 – 4
HB Torshavn
HB Torshavn
Maha Samba 30', 11'
B. Klein 72'
J. Thomsen 57'
E. Pedersen 55', 27'
S. Skytte 45', 35'
A. Dam 6'
8/30/2025MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 21Við Stórá Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

TB14%
×Draw19%
HB Torshavn67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TB
0.88
HB Torshavn
2.20

HB Torshavn creates 150% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 103 away

creates per match

TB
0.71
HB Torshavn
2.18

allows per match

TB
2.21
HB Torshavn
1.05

finishing

TB+0.00on par
HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TB ↓

HB Torshavn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

TB or draw
33%
TB or HB Torshavn
81%
Draw or HB Torshavn
86%

Winning margin

TB wins by 2+
4%
HB Torshavn wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

TB 1+ goals
59%
TB 2+ goals
22%
TB 3+ goals
6%
HB Torshavn 1+ goals
89%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
64%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

TB (draw refunded)
17%
HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TB at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.05 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TB attack 0.71 + HB Torshavn defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

HB Torshavn attack 2.18 + TB defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

TB scores more
14%
level
19%
HB Torshavn scores more
67%

HB Torshavn at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
A. Dam↳ E. Pedersen
11'
Maha Samba
17'
M. Armah
27'
E. Pedersen↳ M. Voss
30'
Maha Samba↳ N. Johannesen
35'
S. Skytte↳ H. Sorensen
39'
A. Johannesen
45'
S. Skytte
55'
E. Pedersen↳ J. Thomsen
57'
J. Thomsen↳ E. Pedersen
60'
B. Klein← J. Thomsen
60'
M. Voss← M. Voss
65'
S. Musah← S. Musah
68'
A. Jonsson← H. Sorensen
68'
K. Kramens← A. Johannesen
68'
D. Soylu← N. Mneney
72'
B. Klein
74'
M. D. Djurhuus← M. D. Djurhuus
74'
T. Christiansson← T. Christiansson
75'
E. Joensen← E. Joensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistaradeildin: TB 2–7 HB Torshavn

HB Torshavn beat TB 7-2 in Meistaradeildin on August 30, 2025.

Goals: A. Dam (6'), Maha Samba (11', 30'), E. Pedersen (27', 55'), S. Skytte (35', 45'), J. Thomsen (57'), B. Klein (72').

The match was played at Við Stórá Stadium in Trongisvágur.