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HB Torshavn vs TB — Meistaradeildin 2019

HB Torshavn
HB Torshavn
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TB
TB
S. Skytte 90+6', 90+1' (pen)
H. Sorensen 87', 51'
A. Arnholdsson 77'
6/28/2025MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 15Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

HB Torshavn78%
×Draw14%
TB8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB Torshavn
2.83
TB
0.82

HB Torshavn creates 245% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 67 away

creates per match

HB Torshavn
2.76
TB
0.72

allows per match

HB Torshavn
0.93
TB
2.90

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par
TB+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

TB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw
92%
HB Torshavn or TB
86%
Draw or TB
22%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+
58%
TB wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals
94%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
77%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
53%
TB 1+ goals
56%
TB 2+ goals
20%
TB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
90%
TB (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.93 · 103 matches

TB away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.90 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.76 + TB defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.83

TB attack 0.72 + HB Torshavn defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

HB Torshavn scores more
78%
level
14%
TB scores more
8%

HB Torshavn at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
H. Sorensen
51'
H. Sorensen
55'
A. Diop← A. Diop
65'
D. Soylu← A. Jonsson
65'
E. Pedersen← E. Pedersen
77'
A. Arnholdsson
77'
J. Enkerud← J. Thomsen
79'
M. D. Djurhuus← M. D. Djurhuus
82'
M. Armah
83'
H. Hansen← N. Mneney
86'
R. Joensen
87'
H. Sorensen
89'
R. Joensen
89'
R. Joensen
90'
E. Joensen← E. Joensen
90+1'
S. SkyttePenalty
90+6'
S. Skytte↳ L. Faye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HB Torshavn 4 – 1 TB

HB Torshavn beat TB 4-1 in Meistaradeildin on June 28, 2025.

Goals: H. Sorensen (51', 87'), A. Arnholdsson (77'), S. Skytte (90+1' pen, 90+6').

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.