TB 1–6 HB Torshavn: Result & Stats

TB

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

HB Torshavn

K. Fagerberg 32' (pen)

M. Dahl 90', 86', 60'

J. Thomsen 89'

M. Przybylski 10', 7'

9/27/2021

Meistaradeildin · Round 24Við Stórá Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

TB14%

×Draw19%

HB Torshavn67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TBExpected goals in this matchHB Torshavn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.20

TB

0.88

HB Torshavn

2.20

HB Torshavn creates 150% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 103 away

0.71

creates per match

2.18

2.21

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

TB

0.71

HB Torshavn

2.18

allows per match

TB

2.21

HB Torshavn

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TB+0.00on par

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TB ↓

HB Torshavn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

TB or draw

33%

TB or HB Torshavn

81%

Draw or HB Torshavn

86%

Winning margin

TB wins by 2+

4%

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

TB 1+ goals

59%

TB 2+ goals

22%

TB 3+ goals

6%

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

89%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

64%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

TB (draw refunded)

17%

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TB at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.05 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TB attack 0.71 + HB Torshavn defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

HB Torshavn attack 2.18 + TB defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

TB scores more

14%

level

19%

HB Torshavn scores more

67%

HB Torshavn at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Przybylski

10'

M. Przybylski

32'

K. FagerbergPenalty

46'

M. Armah← K. Fagerberg

59'

A. Midjord← N. Johannesen

60'

M. Dahl

69'

J. Thomsen← P. Petersen

78'

Á. Samuelsen← A. Justinussen

83'

86'

89'

90'

TB

HB

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

⚽

▼

Fagerberg

Khatib

Manager: H. Nkwocha

46'▲M. Armah←▼K. Fagerberg

59'▲A. Midjord←▼N. Johannesen

TB substitutes

ArmahMidjordHeggenPetersenThomsenJespersen

Manager: K. Schindler

69'▲J. Thomsen←▼P. Petersen

78'▲Á. Samuelsen←▼A. Justinussen

83'▲Á. Dam←▼D. Johansen

HB Torshavn substitutes

ThomsenSamuelsenDamMørkGiessing

TB 1 – 6 HB Torshavn

HB Torshavn beat TB 6-1 in Meistaradeildin on September 27, 2021.

Goals: M. Przybylski (7', 10'), K. Fagerberg (32' pen), M. Dahl (60', 86', 90'), J. Thomsen (89').

The match was played at Við Stórá Stadium in Trongisvágur.

TB vs HB Torshavn — Meistaradeildin 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

TB 1 – 6 HB Torshavn