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TB vs B68 — Meistaradeildin 2019

TB
TB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
B68
B68
S. Musah 51'
S. Lau 50'
10/25/2025MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 27Við Stórá Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

TB34%
×Draw24%
B6843%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TB
1.44
B68
1.65

B68 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 75 away

creates per match

TB
0.71
B68
1.07

allows per match

TB
2.23
B68
2.16

finishing

TB+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TB ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

TB or draw
57%
TB or B68
76%
Draw or B68
66%

Winning margin

TB wins by 2+
15%
B68 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

TB 1+ goals
76%
TB 2+ goals
42%
TB 3+ goals
18%
B68 1+ goals
81%
B68 2+ goals
49%
B68 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

TB (draw refunded)
44%
B68 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TB at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.23 · 65 matches

B68 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TB attack 0.71 + B68 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.44

B68 attack 1.07 + TB defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TB scores more
34%
level
24%
B68 scores more
43%

B68 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "B68 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
A. Arnholdsson
38'
S. Lau
38'
A. Diop
50'
S. Lau↳ M. Non
51'
S. Musah↳ M. Armah
59'
L. Guttesen← D. Samuelsen
75'
P. Mensah
76'
E. Kulego
77'
K. Clementsen← J. Josephsen
90'
M. Tummasarson← A. Arnholdsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistaradeildin: TB 1–1 B68

TB and B68 drew 1-1 in Meistaradeildin on October 25, 2025.

Goals: S. Lau (50'), S. Musah (51').

The match was played at Við Stórá Stadium in Trongisvágur.