TB 1–1 B68: Result & Stats | Løgmanssteypid

TB

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

B68

N. Johannesen 78'

H. Højgaard 48'

5/9/2024

Løgmanssteypid · Quarter-finalsVið Stórá Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TB42%

×Draw22%

B6836%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TBExpected goals in this matchB68

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.73

TB

1.90

B68

1.73

TB creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

2.33

1.14

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

TB

1.29

B68

2.33

allows per match

TB

1.14

B68

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TB+0.00on par

B68+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TB ↓

B68 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

TB or draw

64%

TB or B68

78%

Draw or B68

58%

Winning margin

TB wins by 2+

23%

B68 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

TB 1+ goals

85%

TB 2+ goals

56%

TB 3+ goals

29%

B68 1+ goals

82%

B68 2+ goals

52%

B68 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

TB (draw refunded)

54%

B68 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TB at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

B68 away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TB attack 1.29 + B68 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

B68 attack 2.33 + TB defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TB scores more

42%

level

22%

B68 scores more

36%

TB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. Samuelsen

37'

A. Sorensen

44'

H. Hojgaard

46'

S. Lau← F. Petersen

48'

H. Højgaard

75'

M. Tummasarson← A. Arnholdsson

75'

K. Clementsen← V. Klein

78'

N. Johannesen

86'

K. Clementsen

90+1'

B. Petersen

91'

T. Miezan← J. Joensen

97'

H. Johansen← B. Jakobsen

110'

J. Thomsen← A. Sørensen

118'

Holm Torkil

120+1'

E. Thorsteinsson

TB

B68

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

75'▲M. Tummasarson←▼A. Arnholdsson

110'▲J. Thomsen←▼A. Sørensen

TB substitutes

TummasarsonThomsenJohansenJespersenØsterChristianssonGuéye

Manager: J. á Borg

46'▲S. Lau←▼F. Petersen

75'▲K. Clementsen←▼V. Klein

91'▲T. Miezan←▼J. Joensen

97'▲H. Johansen←▼B. Jakobsen

B68 substitutes

LauClementsenMiezanJohansenJensenGaardlykkeDanielsen

Match Recap: TB vs B68

TB and B68 drew 1-1 in Løgmanssteypid on May 9, 2024.

Goals: H. Højgaard (48'), N. Johannesen (78').

The match was played at Við Stórá Stadium in Trongisvágur.

TB vs B68 — Løgmanssteypid 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: TB vs B68