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TB vs 07 Vestur II — 1. Deild 2019

TB
TB
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
07 Vestur II
07 Vestur II
6/22/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 10Við Stórá Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TB67%
×Draw19%
07 Vestur II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TB
2.28
07 Vestur II
0.93

TB creates 145% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

creates per match

TB
2.06
07 Vestur II
0.43

allows per match

TB
1.43
07 Vestur II
2.50

finishing

TB+0.00on par
07 Vestur II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TB ↓

07 Vestur II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TB or draw
86%
TB or 07 Vestur II
81%
Draw or 07 Vestur II
33%

Winning margin

TB wins by 2+
44%
07 Vestur II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

TB 1+ goals
90%
TB 2+ goals
66%
TB 3+ goals
39%
07 Vestur II 1+ goals
61%
07 Vestur II 2+ goals
24%
07 Vestur II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

TB (draw refunded)
83%
07 Vestur II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TB at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

07 Vestur II away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TB attack 2.06 + 07 Vestur II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.28

07 Vestur II attack 0.43 + TB defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

TB scores more
67%
level
19%
07 Vestur II scores more
14%

TB at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "TB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TB vs 07 Vestur II

TB beat 07 Vestur II 7-0 in 1. Deild on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Við Stórá Stadium in Trongisvágur.