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07 Vestur II vs TB — 1. Deild 2019

07 Vestur II
07 Vestur II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
TB
TB
4/9/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 5á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

07 Vestur II18%
×Draw18%
TB64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

07 Vestur II
1.33
TB
2.62

TB creates 97% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

creates per match

07 Vestur II
1.31
TB
1.74

allows per match

07 Vestur II
3.50
TB
1.34

finishing

07 Vestur II+0.00on par
TB+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur II ↓

TB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

07 Vestur II or draw
36%
07 Vestur II or TB
82%
Draw or TB
82%

Winning margin

07 Vestur II wins by 2+
7%
TB wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

07 Vestur II 1+ goals
74%
07 Vestur II 2+ goals
38%
07 Vestur II 3+ goals
15%
TB 1+ goals
93%
TB 2+ goals
73%
TB 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur II (draw refunded)
22%
TB (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.50 · 26 matches

TB away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur II attack 1.31 + TB defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

TB attack 1.74 + 07 Vestur II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

07 Vestur II scores more
18%
level
18%
TB scores more
64%

TB at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "TB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

07 Vestur II 1 – 2 TB

TB beat 07 Vestur II 2-1 in 1. Deild on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.