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Tay Ninh vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
FT
2 – 1
Long An
Long An
9/30/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 11Sân vận động Tây Nin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tay Ninh55%
×Draw27%
Long An18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tay Ninh
1.46
Long An
0.70

Tay Ninh creates 109% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tay Ninh
1.38
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Tay Ninh
0.50
Long An
1.53

finishing

Tay Ninh+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tay Ninh ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tay Ninh or draw
82%
Tay Ninh or Long An
73%
Draw or Long An
45%

Winning margin

Tay Ninh wins by 2+
28%
Long An wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tay Ninh 1+ goals
77%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
43%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
18%
Long An 1+ goals
50%
Long An 2+ goals
16%
Long An 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
76%
Long An (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tay Ninh at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tay Ninh attack 1.38 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Long An attack 0.89 + Tay Ninh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tay Ninh scores more
55%
level
27%
Long An scores more
18%

Tay Ninh at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tay Ninh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tay Ninh vs Long An

Tay Ninh beat Long An 2-1 in V.League 2 on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tây Nin in Tay Ninh.