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Long An vs Tay Ninh — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
1 – 0
Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
10/21/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Relegation Round - 3Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Long An59%
×Draw26%
Tay Ninh15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.54
Tay Ninh
0.63

Long An creates 144% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 8 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Tay Ninh
0.25

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Tay Ninh
1.75

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Tay Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Tay Ninh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Long An or draw
85%
Long An or Tay Ninh
74%
Draw or Tay Ninh
41%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
32%
Tay Ninh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
79%
Long An 2+ goals
45%
Long An 3+ goals
20%
Tay Ninh 1+ goals
47%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
13%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
80%
Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Tay Ninh away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Tay Ninh defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tay Ninh attack 0.25 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Long An scores more
59%
level
26%
Tay Ninh scores more
15%

Long An at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Long An vs Tay Ninh

Long An beat Tay Ninh 1-0 in V.League 2 on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.